You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?
Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why.
The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):
When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.
It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points.
The Spread Is Shrinking
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If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:
“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”
So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:

More homes to choose from
Less competition from other buyers
More time to browse
Better home prices
Sellers who are more willing to negotiate

Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains:
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A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below):
Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with.
Prices Are Moderating
Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace.
That's a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, pric ...

 
If you’re planning to buy a home this year, there’s one expense you can’t afford to overlook: closing costs.
Almost every buyer knows they exist, but not that many know exactly what they cover, or how different they can be based on where you're buying. So, let’s break them down.
What Are Closing Costs?
Your closing costs are the additional fees and payments you make when finalizing your home purchase. Every buyer has them. According to Freddie Mac, they typically include things like homeowner insurance and title insurance, as well as various fees for your:

Loan application
Credit report
Loan origination
Home appraisal
Home inspection
Property survey
Attorney

National vs. Local: Why the Numbers Look So Different
When you search for information about closing costs online, you’ll often see a national range, usually 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. While that’s a useful starting point if you’re working on your . ...

 
If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here's a trend worth paying attention to:
More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments.
A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free
According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data, more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below):
One big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that.
How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying P? ...